It’s unlikely to happen, but I think LeCharles Bentley is right when he says that the 49ers would have more success moving Anthony Davis from tackle to guard than they…
Willis flirting with Madden curse
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Trent Baalke’s draft GPA
Let’s examine Trent Baalke’s draft resume.
According to the Niners media guide, Trent Baalke has called the shots on draft weekend the last two years. Here’s what it says about him: “Prior to being named the 49ers GM, Baalke served as Vice President of Player Personnel for the team in 2010, as he oversaw all aspects of player personnel, including the team’s draft process. For the first time in his career, he commanded a NFL team’s draft room, and netted eight selections that went on to make the team’s opening-day roster.”
There have been rumors since 2010 that Baalke didn’t really want to draft Taylor Mays – Mike Singletary commanded him to pick the Trojan. I don’t know anything about that. Baalke’s resume says he commanded the war room and takes credit for all eight of those 2010 draft picks, so I’m giving him the credit for Mays and everything else.
Let’s brake down each draft pick he’s made the last two years and give him an overall grade.
2010
1st round – 11th pick: Anthony Davis. Baalke traded up two spots, costing the Niners a fourth round pick, for 20-year old right tackle expected to start right away. Stunk right away, of course. Improved, and could be one of the best right tackles in the league in his prime. He’s certainly athletic enough, and he’ better than the next RT drafted in 2010 – Bryan Bulaga. Grade: B+.
1st round – 17th pick: Mike Iupati. Can’t miss left guard who’s been good since Day 1. Still, Baalke missed out on Dez Bryant and Rob Gronkowski. Grade: A-.
2nd round – 49th pick: Taylor Mays. Traded to the Bengals in August for a seventh rounder. Baalke missed out on Ben Tate, Toby Gerhart and Javier Arenas. Grade: F.
3rd round – 91st pick: NaVorro Bowman. All-pro inside linebacker last season. The 8th linebacker drafted, but the best one in hindsight. Baalke knocked this pick out of the park. Grade: A+.
6th round – 173rd pick: Anthony Dixon. He’s failed as a short-yardage back in his young career, but he has the size and athleticism to be good. He’s going to have to beat out Brandon Jacobs in training camp. This is doable – Jacobs is the softest big running back in the NFL Grade: C.
6th round – 182nd pick: Nate Byham. Baalke drafted him to be a blocking tight end and missed out on stud wideout Antonio Brown, whom the Steelers drafted 13 picks later. Byham tore his knee up the first day of training trying to catch a pass in the flat with no one around him. Grade: D-.
6th round – 206th pick: Kyle Williams. The best wide receiver available, but Baalke should have draft WR Antonio Brown with his previous pick. Grade: B.
7th round – 224th pick: Phillip Adams. Played 13 games as rookie, but broke his ankle at the end of the season and got cut the following training camp. Baalke missed Cal CB Syd’Quan Thompson, whom the Broncos drafted 1 pick later. Apparently Baalke doesn’t watch Cal games. Grade: D.
2011 Draft
1st round – 7th pick: Aldon Smith. Pushed the defense over the top. Grade: A+.
2nd round – 36th pick: Colin Kaepernick. Backup last season; could be the third-stringer this year. Baalke drafted him to be a three-year project, so it’s tough to judge him until 2014. Grade: INC.
3rd round – 80th pick: Chris Culliver. Instead of drafting Prince Amukamara in the first round, Baalke picked a pass rusher and waited until the 80th pick to address the Niners’ biggest need – cornerback. Culliver was a very good nickel back his rookie season and has the potential to be a No. 1 CB one day. Baalke gets bonus points for recognizing the potential because Culliver was a safety in college. Baalke dominates the third round two years in a row. Grade: A+.
4th round – 115th pick: Kendall Hunter. Productive right away as a change-of-pace running back. Not good running between the tackles, but excellent on outside runs, big-time potential in the screen game. Grade: A.
5th round – 163rd pick: Daniel Kilgore. Baalke traded up to draft this interior lineman whom the coaches like very much. He could start as early as this season at right guard. He’s slotted for the center job after Jonathan Goodwin leaves Grade: A.
6th round – 182nd pick: Ronald Johnson. Didn’t make the team out of training camp on a team desperate for wide receivers. Small and slow. Baalke missed on Stanford wide receiver Doug Baldwin, who had a very good rookie season for the Seahawks. Baalke has a history of drafting terrible Trojans. Grade: F.
6th round – 190th pick: Colin Jones: Good special teams player right away, which is exactly what Baalke wanted. Grade: B+.
7th round – 211th pick: Bruce Miller. Defensive end in college who is already a very good NFL fullback. Can block, catch and run. Grade: A+.
7th round – 239th pick: Mike Person. Made the team his rookie year and appears to have a future as on the Niners as a versatile backup offensive lineman. Think the next Adam Snyder. Grade: A.
7th round – 250th pick: Curtis Holcomb. Ruptured his Achilles tendon the first day of training camp. Grade: INC.
Before I give give you Baalke’s draft GPA, let me explain how I calculated it. I weighted all draft picks the same. Why should Baalke get less credit for drafting NaVorro Bowman in the third round than if he had drafted Bowman in the first round? That wouldn’t make sense.
Baalke’s job is to make every pick an A+, so I graded him accordingly.
Baalke’s draft GPA: 2.9
That’s a low B, and that’s because he has two F’s and two D’s on his report card. The good news – three of those awful grades came in 2010, so Baalke’s improving.
Preseason schedule: Hello, Peyton Manning, g’bye, Raiders
The 49ers’ all-important third preseason game will come against the four-time league MVP who almost became a 49er, Peyton Manning. The 49ers will travel to Denver to face Manning and…
Reggie Smith signs with Panthers; 2008 draft class dwindles
Reggie Smith, who for a short period last year figured to be the 49ers’ starter at free safety, signed with the Panthers, the team announced today. Smith was a third-round…
Report: 49ers to host another free-agent guard
Add former Ram and Raven Jason Brown to the list of veteran guards the 49ers will look at for their vacancy on the right side of the offensive line. Adam…
Alex Smith’s problems on third down
Take this for what it’s worth – Alex Smith has always been bad on third down.
Before I explain, let me define my terms. “Average” on third down would be a 38 percent conversion success rate and five conversions per game.
In 2006, Smith’s first full season starting, the Niners offense converted 34.45 percent of third downs and averaged 4.5 third-down conversions per game. Both figures ranked 26th in the NFL.
In 2009 Smith started ten games, and over that stretch the Niners offense converted a paltry 30.15 percent of third downs and averaged just 4.1 third-down conversions per game. Both figures ranked 29th.
In 2010 Smith started nine games and rebounded to his 2006 form – 34.09 percent third-down conversion rate, 4.6 third-down conversions per game, both ranking 25th.
Last season, Smith’s third-down play tanked inexplicably. He converted a mind-bogglingly low 28.11 percent of third downs and averaged 3.89 third-down conversions per game, ranking 31st. For reference, Tim Tebow averaged 3.92 third-down conversions per game in 2011.
Smith has historically converted roughly four third downs per game. That’s bad, but it’s not a killer – not on this great Niners team. Smith converted four third downs against the Saints in the playoffs and won.
Smith’s main problem on third down is his propensity to get shut out entirely. Over his last 26 starts, he’s converted two or fewer third downs nine times.
Does Smith deserve all the blame? No. Offensive linemen have to block and wide receivers have to get open and catch the ball, and Smith hasn’t had the best offensive line or wide receivers over the years.
Maybe Greg Roman should take the blame for Smith getting outplayed by Tebow on third down last season. After all, Roman routinely called ultra-ultra-conservative plays with leads or near field goal range.
Maybe it’s not Smith’s fault. I just can’t help but notice that while his interception rate and red zone effectiveness have fluctuated over the years, for whatever reason his third down results have always been bad.
On the other hand, Joe Flacco, who some might rank in the same QB tier as Smith, has always had good results on third down.
In 2008, Flacco converted 39.26 percent. In 2009, 42.8 percent. In 2010, 40.17 percent. And in 2011, 41.98 percent.
Mark Sanchez had his worst season ever on third down in ’11, converting 34.74, a higher rate than Smith has ever produced. Sanchez also converted 40.43 percent in 2010.
Matt Ryan converted 43.46 percent in 2011 and 46 percent in 2010.
Obviously third down conversions aren’t everything. What do you make of Smith’s bad third-down numbers?
Update: Here are more in-depth 2011 third-down stats for Smith, via the Washington Post, courtesy of our commenter BigP:
“#12 in NFC on 3rd down passing conversions, #23 overall.
#16 in NFC on 3rd and <3 yards, #32 overall.
#11 in NFC on 3rd and 3-7 yards, #23 overall.
#11 in NFC on 3rd and 8+ yards, #20 overall.
#12 in % First Downs/Attempt, #20 overall.”
Update No. 2: For another point of comparison, Shaun Hill converted 40.17 percent of his third downs as a Niner from 2007 to 2009.
Source: 49ers groundbreaking scheduled for April 19th
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Johnson wants to continue his development under Harbaugh
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49ers sign QB Josh Johnson to a two-year deal
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Niners sign QB Josh Johnson to 2-year deal, turn up the heat on Alex Smith, Colin Kaepernick
The Niners just announced they signed free agent quarterback Josh Johnson to a two-year contract.
What does this mean?
Jim Harbaugh is going to say it’s all about competition. But what this really means is the Niners think they can do better at quarterback. They’re not satisfied with the production they got from the position last season, and they’re not satisfied with their current trio – Alex Smith, Colin Kaepernick and Scott Tolzien.
With Josh Johnson, the Niners not only hedge the Alex Smith signing, but they hedge the Kaepernick draft pick as well, and it’s now a four-horse race to become the Niners’ quarterback of the future.
That’s how I read it. How about you?
49ers re-sign return man Ted Ginn
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G Geoff Schwartz signs with Vikings
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Alex Smith: I’m not offended at all
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Alex Smith currently in negotiations with Dolphins, could be a goner
Alex Smith is not waiting for the 49ers any longer. He’s negotiating with Dolphins right now according to the Denver Post’s Mike Klis, who cites an NFL source.
Stay tuned – he could sign any minute.
The Niners must feel confident they’re going to sign Peyton Manning or that they can win a Super Bowl with Colin Kaepernick, Josh Johnson or Matt Hasselbeck, or any bargain quarterback.
Either way, it seems like Alex Smith is a goner.
Source: Smith in middle of QB leverage battle
An intimate look at Jim Harbaugh with Alex Smith at Pebble Beach
A friend of my dad’s had an inside look at Jim Harbaugh and Alex Smith at the AT&T golf at Pebble Beach last month.
The Niners played the Giants on a Tuesday. Duane Kuiper caddied for Mike Krukow, Alex Smith caddied for Jim Harbaugh. Jerry Rice, Matt Cain, and Brent Jones played, too, among others.
According to the observer, Harbaugh and Smith acted as if “they would be together for the next 10 years.”
To read what else the observer noticed, click here.
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Manningham to visit St. Louis as 49ers continue to play it slow
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